English
မြန်မာ
The Traps of Critical Thinking Part 1
"--- This program is jointly presented by the positive perspective page Bawa 101 and Myanmar's first...
"---
This program is jointly presented by the positive perspective page Bawa 101 and Myanmar's first course guide MyanLearn app.
---
The first of the many logical fallacies I would like to introduce is the Gambler's Fallacy. The fallacy is to conclude that the outcome of a random event depends on previous outcomes. For example - Let's say that I flipped heads 5 times in a row and came up empty. So, assuming that the 6th result will be 'heads' again, Or, it is wrong to assume that the head has fallen 5 times before, and that the head cannot fall in the 6th time. Since this is the only coin flipped heads, the probability of heads is 50-50 every time. It is called the gambler's error trap because it is a trap that one can slip into when making guesses about the possibilities. Let's do an exercise to make it clearer. Please write the answer in the comment below.
1) Irrawaddy Division won the prize of 10,000,000 in June and July 2 times in a row. Therefore, August's prize of one hundred and fifty thousand
A) I will get more from Irrawaddy.
b) No longer available from Irrawaddy.
c) Still available from Irrawaddy.
This program is jointly presented by the positive perspective page Bawa 101 and Myanmar's first course guide MyanLearn app."
This program is jointly presented by the positive perspective page Bawa 101 and Myanmar's first course guide MyanLearn app.
---
The first of the many logical fallacies I would like to introduce is the Gambler's Fallacy. The fallacy is to conclude that the outcome of a random event depends on previous outcomes. For example - Let's say that I flipped heads 5 times in a row and came up empty. So, assuming that the 6th result will be 'heads' again, Or, it is wrong to assume that the head has fallen 5 times before, and that the head cannot fall in the 6th time. Since this is the only coin flipped heads, the probability of heads is 50-50 every time. It is called the gambler's error trap because it is a trap that one can slip into when making guesses about the possibilities. Let's do an exercise to make it clearer. Please write the answer in the comment below.
1) Irrawaddy Division won the prize of 10,000,000 in June and July 2 times in a row. Therefore, August's prize of one hundred and fifty thousand
A) I will get more from Irrawaddy.
b) No longer available from Irrawaddy.
c) Still available from Irrawaddy.
This program is jointly presented by the positive perspective page Bawa 101 and Myanmar's first course guide MyanLearn app."
